World wine production could be smallest in over 60 years

World wine production in 2023 will be the smallest since 1961 , even lower than the historically small production of 2017, the OIV has estimated.

Speaking via web conference from the OIV’s headquarters in Dijon on Tuesday (7 November), the head of the statistical department and digital transformation, Giorgio Delgrosso, revealed that based on information collected on 29 countries, accounting for 94% of global wine production in 2022, output (excluding juices and musts) in 2023 is estimated to be between 241.7 million hectolitres (mhl) and 246.6mhl, with a mid-range estimate at 244.1mhl. This represents a decrease of 7% compared to the already below-average volume of 2022.

The OIV’s ‘2023 World Wine Production – OIV First Estimates’ report says this decline is due to a combination of extremely low harvest volumes in the Southern Hemisphere as well as in some
major European Union countries. In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, and Brazil recorded declines in wine production of between 10% and 30% while in the Northern Hemisphere, Italy, Spain and  Greece suffered the most from bad climatic conditions during the growing season. Only the USA and a few EU countries like Germany, Portugal and Romania, experienced favourable climatic conditions that resulted in average or above-average wine production volumes.

In the EU, a decrease in wine production on 2022 is forecast in Italy and Spain due to unfavourable weather conditions that led to downy mildew and droughts. France is tipped to be the world’s largest producer in 2023, with a volume slightly above its five-year average.

First harvest forecasts in the USA indicate that production volume will be not only higher than in 2022, but also above the average observed in the last years.

In the Southern Hemisphere wine production volumes are expected to be well below 2022 figures. Australia, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, and Brazil were all heavily affected by adverse weather conditions. The exception is New Zealand, the only country with a 2023 production level above its five-year average.

The OIV said its 2023 estimates should be taken with caution as there were still large countries like China whose information was not yet available. The high volatility in production volumes observed in recent years at both the country and regional levels also made the forecasting exercise more difficult.

Although extreme climatic conditions, such as early frost, heavy rainfall and drought, had significantly impacted the overall output of the world’s vineyards, given declining global wine consumption and high stocks in many regions of the world, the expected low production in 2023 could bring equilibrium to the world market, the OIV said.

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