The Bureau of Meteorology will today release its 2020 Winter Outlook, with most of the country showing an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions in the coming three months.

The Bureau’s manager of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins, said there were only a few areas across the country that weren’t looking at a wetter than average winter.

“Most areas of mainland Australia are showing a better than 70 per cent chance of having a wetter than average winter,” Dr Watkins said.

“The only exceptions are the coastal fringes of NSW and eastern Victoria, parts of Tasmania and areas of southwest WA where the outlook isn’t pushing towards wetter or drier than average conditions.

“Parts of northern Australia are also showing no strong push towards wetter than average conditions, but this is typically the dry season anyway.”

Dr Watkins said the outlook was being largely driven by warmer than average ocean temperatures off north west WA, as well as warm ocean temperatures in the western Pacific.

“Ocean temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are currently warmer than normal, and our models are predicting they will warm further throughout the winter months.

“When warm sea surface temperatures occur closer to Australia, weather patterns shift towards us too, favouring more cloud and rainfall across the country.

“We last saw this happen in 2016, when a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole formed to the west of Australia. This was the last time we saw tropical moisture from the northern Indian Ocean deliver good winter rainfall to large parts of Australia.

“We aren’t guaranteed the same results as 2016, but the warmer ocean temperatures surrounding the continent will push us in the direction of better than average rainfall.

“As always, it’s important people use the outlooks in conjunction with all of the Bureau’s other tools to make decisions, including the seven-day forecast which will provide details on potential rainfall for the immediate days ahead.”

Daytime temperatures throughout the winter months are expected to be cooler than average for much of the southern half of the country, but warmer than average along the eastern seaboard and most of northern Australia.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the entire country.

“When we look at the expected temperatures, they really fall in line with the expected rainfall conditions.

“Areas with a higher chance of above average rainfall are also looking at increased chances of cooler than average days because they are more likely to have cloud cover and more evaporative cooling in the coming months.

“Conversely, it means our nights are more likely to be warmer than average, because that cloud cover will prevent heat from escaping during the evenings.”

On Monday 1 June, the Bureau will release its state and national autumn summaries.

Preliminary data shows much of northern and Western Australia had a warmer than average autumn, but the season has been interspersed with periods of very cold weather.

Most of south eastern Australia has had a cooler than average autumn period.

Autumn rainfall is likely to have been above average through most of the south east, and parts of central Australia and northern WA.

Conditions have been drier than average through most of southeast Queensland and parts of northeast NSW.

Large parts of WA were drier than average for autumn but recent and expected rainfall in the coming days could push some areas of WA closer to average rainfall for the period.

Fast Facts:

National

Winter outlook

Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the country, however coastal areas of NSW and eastern Victoria, along with parts of Tasmania and southwest WA show no strong push to wetter or drier than average conditions. Some areas of northern Australia are also showing no strong push to wetter conditions; however this is typically the dry season in the north of the country.

Day time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for much of the southern half of the country while they will be warmer than average in the north of the country and along the eastern seaboard.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the country.

Preliminary autumn summary

Rainfall patterns were geographically variable during autumn, but the country as a whole is currently tracking drier than average. Parts of the south east are currently tracking wetter than average.

Autumn has been warmer than average in the north and west of the country despite periods of cold weather, while it has been cooler than average in the mainland southeast.

New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory

Winter Outlook

• High chance of above average rainfall for inland areas of the state and the ACT, however the coastal fringe of the NSW is showing no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions.
• Cooler than average days are more likely for western parts of the state, and warmer than average in the east, particularly near the coast.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state and the ACT.
• Preliminary autumn summary​
• Daytime temperatures have been very much below average except for the coastal strip.
• Overnight temperatures have been closer to average for most of the state.
• Rainfall has been above average across most of the state, particularly inland areas.

Queensland

Winter outlook

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the state, with only areas in the far north (where it is seasonally dry at this time of year) showing no strong push towards wetter than average conditions.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average along coastal areas and in the north. No strong push for other parts of the state.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state.
• Preliminary autumn summary
• Rainfall has been below average across much of the state, particularly in the southeast.
• Daytime and overnight temperatures have been slightly warmer than average for the state as a whole, but there have been periods of very cold weather in some parts during autumn.

Victoria

Winter outlook

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the state, but there is no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions in East Gippsland.
• Days are likely to be cooler than average in western parts of the state, and warmer than average in the east
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state.
• Preliminary autumn summary
• It has been wetter than average for most of Victoria, particularly in the north of state.
• The state as a whole is on track for its wettest autumn since 1989.
• Days were cooler than average for most of the State away from East Gippsland and parts of the coast, and much cooler than average in some areas of the north.
• Overnight temperatures were close to average, but with many cool nights in March and May.

Tasmania

Winter outlook

• No strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions for most of the state.
• Both daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for the entire state.
• Preliminary autumn summary
• Rainfall has been above average for most of the state, particularly in the north and in coastal areas of the west and east.
• For the state as a whole, it is likely to be the wettest autumn since 2016.
• Daytime temperatures were close to average for most of the state, but cooler than average in the east.
• Overnight temperatures were warmer than average for most of the state.

South Australia

Winter outlook

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for the entire state.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be below average for the entire state.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state.
• Preliminary autumn summary
• Rainfall was below average for the state as a whole.
• Rainfall was above average in parts of the Riverland and far northeast districts.
• Rainfall was below average in the far northwest of the state.
• Days were cooler than average across much of the southeast and central parts of the state.
• Night have been cooler than average across central districts and the Flinders Ranges, and closer to average elsewhere.

Western Australia

Winter outlook

• Winter is likely to be wetter than average across most of the state, with the exception of the southwest of the state where there is no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be cooler than average across most of the state, but warmer than average in parts of the north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state.
• Preliminary autumn summary
• Autumn temperatures were above average over most of the State. It is likely to be amongst the top 10 warmest autumn’s on record for the state as a whole.
• Rainfall was below average over most of the state except for the Pilbara region. Upcoming rainfall could push some regions towards average rainfall for the autumn period.

Northern Territory

Outlook for the coming months

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the state, with the highest likelihood in the south. Further the north, the likelihood is reduced.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be cooler in the south and warmer in the north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state.
• Summary for May conditions
• Rainfall has been above average for parts of the Top End but below average in the south of the Northern Territory.
• Temperatures have been close to average except for parts of the Top End which were above average.

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