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World wine consumption expected to continue growing
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(First appeared in La Journée Vinicole, Edition 2010, February 24 2010)
World wine consumption will grow by 1 billion bottles between 2009 and 2013, claims a new report commissioned by Vinexpo from The International Wine and Spirits Record (IWSR).
For the eighth consecutive year, IWSR has analysed trends in consumption, production and trade in wine, and thrown up a series of forecasts for the next five years.
From its 2008 level of 2.621bn 9-litre cases (+5.63%/2004), world wine consumption is predicted to rise by a further 3.57% between 2009 and 2013 to 2.7bn cases.
By country, IWSR confirms its previous forecast that the US will be the number one wine consuming country in the world by 2011–2012, with a projected volume of around 310 million cases by 2013.
At the moment, however, Italy stays in the hot spot with 298.34 million cases in 2008, with France now ranking third, after the US.
French wine consumption continues to wane with a further drop of 8.31% between 2004 and 2008.
Concurrently with this, China continues to rise and stands in eighth position with annual consumption of 74.59 million cases in 2008.
From 2004 to 2008, the Chinese increased their consumption of still wines by a staggering 80% and IWSR forecasts that it will have exceeded 100 million cases by 2013.
The Russian Federation is also in the Top 10 and is expected to see consumption rise between 2009 and 2013, though at a slower rate than over the previous five years (+6.41%, versus +59% between 2004 and 2008).
By 2013, IWSR predicts the Russians will be drinking 74.91m 9-litre cases of wine.
In view of these predictions, the US and China should account for over half of the global increase in wine consumption (still and sparkling) between 2009 and 2013, translating to an extra 53.241 million cases.
Despite this, countries such as Canada, Russia and Brazil will also play a major part in rising global wine consumption with respective increases of 6.51%, 5.63% and 4.23%.
India will also be an important driving force with consumption expected to rise by 1.47m cases by 2013.
The Vinexpo/IWSR study also predicts an increase of 3.79% in consumption of red wines, which look set to represent 52.27% of overall consumption in 2013, compared with 51.86% in 2008.
While white wines are expected to show little change between 2009 and 2013 (+1.15%), Rosé wines seem set to continue their rise in popularity with a projected 6.13% increase.
In value terms, the world wine market was worth 151.817 billion US dollars in 2008 and is expected to grow by 8.05% between 2009 and 2013.
Over a ten-year period (2004–2013), turnover will rise by 19.75% while volumes will grow by ‘just’ 8.82%, underscoring the trend towards trading-up.
The main producer countries continue to dominate international trade in wine. Spain has become the world’s leading wine exporter by volume with a rise of 13.66% between 2004 and 2008 while Italy recorded concurrent growth of 8.97% and France fell by 3.88%.
However, France remains the world’s leading exporter country by value with a turnover of 9.731 billion US dollars in 2008.